Are we going Cold War again ? The question may raise a few eyebrows; of course we are not, the subtle battle between the East and the West in now a thing of the past. But when I look at numbers and the arms deals that are currently being done, I can’t think of anything else. This time the game is not just between East and West but has grown more complex. And the issue is not as simple as it used to be, but a lot more difficult as well to assess.
Let’s put things in perspective. The Middle East is more than ever a very dangerous place. We mistakenly thought the Arab revolutions would spread to all countries, bringing some sort of peace or status quo to the area. Iran is now more than ever provoking the West, Syria is burning its own plains and Israel remains a strong focus of attention, slowly but surely building up its stock of weapons? And it is also very unclear how the Emirates will truly react in case a conflict erupt although they appear on the safe side. It is fair to assume that this area, with petrol, religion, culture and history just need a spark to explose.
At the same time, China needs more oil every day and keeps building arms, as well as developing its own weaponry, like a stealthy jet fighter. And although the west is smiling at the Chinese technology right now, they should worry as China is not just a poor and uneducated country anymore. They do cars, airplanes, trains, satellites and they are truly going for it. Furthermore, they seem not to give a fuck about whatever the West might think. After all they have the numbers for them: the population and the cash.
Another area growing its weapons stocks ? Russia. In July last year, Poutin announced that Russia would spend 730 Billions dollars by 2020 to upgrade and maximize weapons. This is 20 Mio USD every day… What’s more, today Russia announced that they were keeping 30 Mig 31 on high alert duty. The announcement is not coming after a threat of any kind, but just to state that these jet fighters are ready to go after anyone.
Further developments are also happening in Pakistan, with the development of a F-22 look alike jet fighter. This area is already in turmoil, with Afghanistan in the mud up to its neck, Pakistan, the safe heaven of Ben Laden is not looking too good, and India, the enormous neighbour could soon very much become annoyed at Pakistan’s efforts to develop its own air force. And remember, these guys have the Bomb.
So everywhere I look, it seems piles of arms are stacking up. And I am not even going into the US Military. It’s like the old days, except the rules of the games have changed and the participants have also something we don’t get, a very specific culture. And this may be the breaking point. For hundred of years our model of thought and culture have prevailed, mainly because we were stronger than the others. But as our model let other people do what they want to have a better life, we have also allowed for others to raise to our levels, hence sometimes being equal or stronger than the West. So what do people do when they see their neighbor becoming strong, or too strong ? They start to buy weapons and prepare for the downside. It seems to me we are there.
Of course we can count on our good judgment, sense of history and our overall intention to do good not to engage in a new war. But not all have our commitment to peace. And history shows that Empires are made and destroyed for others to be made and then destroyed. So are we going Cold War again?
